Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in December at 83.4% from 83.5% in November.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in “Average Hourly Earnings” for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% YoY in December.
From the BLS report:
“The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed
little in December and is little different from a year earlier. These individuals would
have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had
been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.“
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.36 million from 4.47 million in November. This is close to the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.5% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.51 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.65 million the previous month.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
| Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2020 | 113 |
| 2 tie | 20241 | 48 |
| 2 tie | 1990 | 48 |
| 4 | 2007 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was well above expectations, however, October and November payrolls were revised down by 8,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%.