As follow-up to my previous post, earlier today the Census Bureau released the population estimates by age for 2013: As the Nation Ages, Seven States Become Younger, Census Bureau Reports
The median age declined in seven states between 2012 and 2013, including five in the Great Plains, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today. In contrast, the median age for the U.S. as a whole ticked up from 37.5 years to 37.6 years.
I think the headline should have been something like: Baby Boomers lose Title as Largest 5-Year Cohort!
Note: This is a positive for apartments, see: The Favorable Demographics for Apartments and Apartments: Supply and Demand
The table below shows the top 11 cohorts by size for 2010, 2013 (released today), and Census Bureau projections for 2020 and 2030.
As I noted earlier, by 202 8 of the top 10 cohorts will be under 40 (the Boomers will be fading away), and by 2030 the top 11 cohorts will be the youngest 11 cohorts (the reason I included 11 cohorts).
As the graph in the previous post indicated, even without the financial crisis we would have expected some slowdown in growth this decade (just based on demographics). The good news is that will change soon.
There will be plenty of “gray hairs” walking around in 2020 and 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age will be increasing again soon.
| Population: Largest 5-Year Cohorts by Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largest Cohorts |
2010 | 2013 | 2020 | 2030 |
| 1 | 45 to 49 years | 20 to 24 years | 25 to 29 years | 35 to 39 years |
| 2 | 50 to 54 years | 50 to 54 years | 30 to 34 years | 40 to 44 years |
| 3 | 15 to 19 years | 25 to 29 years | 35 to 39 years | 30 to 34 years |
| 4 | 20 to 24 years | 30 to 34 years | Under 5 years | 25 to 29 years |
| 5 | 25 to 29 years | 45 to 49 years | 55 to 59 years | 5 to 9 years |
| 6 | 40 to 44 years | 55 to 59 years | 20 to 24 years | 10 to 14 years |
| 7 | 10 to 14 years | 15 to 19 years | 5 to 9 years | Under 5 years |
| 8 | 5 to 9 years | 40 to 44 years | 60 to 64 years | 15 to 19 years |
| 9 | Under 5 years | 10 to 14 years | 15 to 19 years | 20 to 24 years |
| 10 | 35 to 39 years | 5 to 9 years | 10 to 14 years | 45 to 49 years |
| 11 | 30 to 34 years | Under 5 years | 50 to 54 years | 50 to 54 years |