After a 23% pullback in the Emerging Money Chinese Internet Index (EMCHI) and subsequent 4% bounce off the recent lows, we are getting a number of calls regarding whether or not there is a real entry point here and where we would guide for stopping losses.
We have attached a technical snapshot of where we are. In terms of the pullback, we saw the index go right to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level off the highs set March 6th.
This is a reasonable place to see a bounce, but we would expect the real place of support is 70 on the index where you have a trendline running back to September of 2013.
You also have the 200mda at 71.04 giving you confidence of support on fundamentals. Clearly, the higher PE stocks pulled back more while low PE companies were defensive.
We continue to believe bigger is better in terms of market cap and the return profile for the Chinese players. Baidu (BIDU, quote) and Tencent (TCEHY, quote) are always at a premium over the regional average and have delivered on EPS and top line growth. If you look at the average of the sector it is actually quite reasonable around 22X E’15. The recent correction is just that: a “correction,” not an internet bubble China style.